Azerbaijan, Baku, Nov. 20 / Trend E.Ostapenko /
Armenian-Turkish rapprochement can develop in two different ways, Senior Research Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Policy" at the Heritage Foundation Ariel Cohen said at the international conference "Obstacles to Security in the South Caucasus: Realities and Prospects for Regional Cooperation" in Baku.
"First, the positive solution - Turkey is fulfilling its fraternal duty and links the opening of the border and normalizing relations with Armenia with advances in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and withdrawing Armenian forces from occupied territories," he said. "And then the negative solution - Turkey will solve problems with Armenia in a bilateral mode, give foot to Azerbaijan and not perform his brotherly duty."
Turkish and Armenian foreign ministers Ahmet Davutoglu and Edward Nalbandian signed the Ankara-Yerevan protocols in Zurich Oct. 10.
According to Cohen, it is too early to talk about the final result of the meeting, as much depends on how Azerbaijan appeals to the conscience and consciousness of its Turkish partners.
At this stage, Washington, Moscow and Paris are unanimous in their opinion that a breakthrough is only possible if a decision is made by the Azerbaijani and Armenian political elite, he said.
"If presidents Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan reached an agreement, then the issue will be resolved," Cohen said. "The OSCE Minsk Group's position in this context is secondary."
According to Cohen, in the near future we can expect progress in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
"But I would not take risks and make predictions that during 2010 will be signed any agreement," he said adding that the negotiation process will continue and this is progress.
The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan since 1992, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and 7 surrounding districts. Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group - Russia, France, and the U.S. - are currently holding the peace negotiations.
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