Karl Harbo, former head the European Commission delegation to Afghanistan from 2002 to 2006, especially for Trend
Bush's visit was solely to say good-bye. As is common with such events pleasantries are exchanged and no discussions of substance. It is however fair to say that a lot of positive changes have taken place in Afghanistan over the past 7 years. We tend to talk more about the unfinished part and the daily report of military encounters, bombings and casualties. All over the country there is an amazing economic activity. Schools and clinics are functioning, millions of children in school, infrastructure repaired, etc. The benefits take a long time to filter down to individuals. The drought and increases in prices of flour for example has created hardship for poor people all over the world. On the other hand several millions of people have returned from being refugees abroad.Without the foreign troops, both US and others from 40 countries, the government would fall and the country reverts to be dominated by the Taliban. The great majority of Afghans would not like this to happen and we would see millions take refugee in neighboring countries. The most contentious part have been the heavy use of air power and the collateral damage in the form of civilians killed and damage to private property. It has to be seen if the new president will restrict the use of air bombardment which in turn might cause an increase in military casualties.3.The plan to increase the military force by 15-20,000 will not in itself turn the tide in the short run. It has to be combined with other measures such as the recent campaign to reduce infiltration from Pakistan .The new units will be deployed close to Kabul in Wardak and Logar. There is an urgent need to retake control of this area as the main roads to the South pass through here. It will be a major reinforcement and will undoubtedly have a positive effect from a military point of view. But it will not solve all problems.For a long time there have been talks about a new strategy to be pursued partly as a result of the new administration in the US. A major element would be a wider regional context with involvement of the countries in Central Asia, Pakistan, India and perhaps Iran. A preliminary meeting took place in Paris last week-end. However it is too early to predict anything specific at this time.
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