Azerbaijan, Baku, Nov. 21 / Trend U.Sadikhova /
The proclamation of an independent Palestinian state will not be unilaterally supported by the United States and European countries, even if the Palestinians and the Arab countries put forward Israel's refusal to freeze settlement construction and the continued blockade of Gaza as a justification, analysts say.
Experts believe that even if the solution of problems of the two states is supported by western countries, the U.S. and EU agree to establish a Palestinian state only through the diplomatic process with Israel, preserving the economic and strategic partnership with Israel.
"Even though some countries like France might at times express strong condemnation of Israel policies and intransigence, Western powers generally support a two-states' solution to be achieved within the frame of bilateral negotiations. Particularly the US, who have since the 1993 Oslo Accords played the role of active mediators," Chiara Sulmoni Expert at the Centre of study and research for the Arab and Mediterranean world CERMAM wrote Trend in an e-mail.
Even though the Gaza blockade and the issue of settlements can be brought forward as key elements conducive to the current failure of the peace process, they will not be taken to justify unilateral moves, as there already is a framework for peace negotiations to abide by (the Road Map), the expert believes.
In his interview with Trend , a member of central committee of the ruling Palestinian Fatah party, assistant of the Palestinian Authority President, Nabil Shaat, highlighted the impossibility of the proclamation of a Palestinian state unilaterally unless it is supported by the U.S. and leading EU countries.
According to Shaat, if in 1988 when the former PLO leader Yasser Arafat declared Palestinian state in Algeria, it was recognized by Russia, China, India and several Eastern European countries, now the Palestinian Authority wants to achieve recognition of the United States, European countries and Japan.
However, the EU leaders and the administration of Washington have already rejected the plan for a unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state, while Israel has threatened retaliation against the independent steps of the Palestinians.
Washington and Brussels believe that a Palestinian state can be created only through peace talks with Israel, which, however, got into deadlock several months ago due to Israel's decision to expand construction of Jewish settlements on the West Bank. The Palestinians accused Israel of blocking the peace process because of the refusal to stop settlement expansion and remove the blockade of Gaza, which UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon urged last week.
Experts believe that the U.S. and Europe prefer to a diplomatic solution to the issue of a Palestinian state, exceeding from the inexpediency of refusing the old principles and strategic relations with Israel.
The EU, like the US, wishes to see a Palestinian state emerge out of a diplomatic process not as an alternative to diplomacy, Professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University Nathan Brown believes.
"The Palestinian strategy of talking of a state now may have the effect of confronting the Western powers with the failure of their diplomacy, but it is unlikely to convince them to support a unilateral Palestinian declaration," Brown wrote Trend in an e-mail.
"A few European powers may dissent from this approach and favor recognition of a Palestinian state," the expert said. "But they seem to be a minority now."
Although in summer the EU High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana called on establishing a Palestinian state within two years in case of failure in the peace process, Brussels, according to analysts, is more interested in preserving the economic (the EU is the largest trading partner of Israel) and strategic partnership with Israel.
Historically, all the US administrations left Israel to decide on the Palestinian issue.On the issue of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the European countries follows the US position and they do not have an independent position, Muhammad Yaghi Commentator of the Palestinian Al Ayyam newspaper thinks.
"Why Europe should jeopardize its relation with the US and Israel if its current position doesn't entail any Arab economic sanctions for example," Yaghi wrote Trend in an e-mail. "The European position follows the position of the US and they feel their interests secure in the Middle East since the Arab countries are doing nothing to pressure Europe to change its position."
European expert Sulmoni agrees that most Western countries do not want to jeopardize the strong political and economic ties with Israel.
Further tensions could also arise with Arab countries, who expressed their support for Abbas' initiative, the expert said.
Analysts consider that the United States and Europe are more oriented to the original plan of right-wing government of Benjamin Netanyahu, who called on to create public and political institutions on the West Bank and return full control over the Gaza Strip to the administration before a Palestinian state is established.
American expert Brown believe that the U.S. and EU are supportive of (and even give heavy financial assistance to) the construction of embryonic state-like institutions in the West Bank.
Head of the Israeli-Palestinian Center for Research and Information Gershon Baskin thinks that the Palestinians need to build institutions and this is have to go on the plan of Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad.
Rather than discussing the issue of settlements, the Americans were to address the issue of borders, Baskin told Trend .
The U.S is not yet ready to allow Palestinians to do the unilateral steps, The USA wants to work to create the negotiations process. I think that very soon the Americans will come to the conclusion that they have to find some way of doing the peace process without the negotiations, which is a dangerous," the expert said.
He believes the US can simply "rise out their hands and say nothing can be done."
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