BAKU, Azerbaijan, February 19. Refinery throughputs in OECD Europe are anticipated to decline throughout 1Q2024, Trend reports.
According to the forecast from the International Energy Agency (IEA), regional refinery runs are projected to reach their minimum in March due to the initiation of extensive seasonal maintenance.
Meanwhile, refinery throughputs in OECD Europe experienced additional increases in December, achieving a seasonal peak of 11.6 mb/d, with the UK contributing to nearly half of the month-on-month increase.
However, compared to the previous year, crude runs were 200,000 b/d lower, primarily due to ongoing subdued activity in Germany, the IEA noted. Upon reviewing the complete annual data for 2023, the growth forecast for 2024 has been adjusted upward by 30,000 b/d to 11.3 mb/d, although it remains 30,000 b/d lower than the throughput levels observed in 2023.
The primary factor dampening activity levels in the region is the decrease in demand, the agency explains.
The recent revelation about the scheduled closure of Shell's 147,000 b/d Wesseling refinery in Germany by 2025 underscores the vulnerability of the region's less competitive assets. In conjunction with the already declared closure of the United Kingdom's 150,000 b/d Grangemouth refinery next year, the likelihood of a more pronounced reduction in crude runs is gaining momentum.