BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 11. In its latest forecast, bp projects that global oil demand will plateau for the rest of this decade before entering a period of decline, driven primarily by reduced oil use in road transport, Trend reports.
Despite this, oil will continue to play a significant role in the global energy system in the near term, the outlook noted.
By 2035, the world is expected to consume between 80 and 100 mb/d, depending on the Current Trajectory or Net Zero scenario. Under the Current Trajectory scenario, oil consumption is projected to gradually decline to about 75 mb/d by 2050.
In contrast, the Net Zero scenario predicts a more significant drop, with demand falling to between 25 and 30 mb/d by 2050, representing a reduction of approximately 70 percent from 2022 levels.
bp assesses that the primary driver of this reduction is the declining use of oil in road transport, as vehicle fleet efficiency improves and alternative fuels become more prevalent, particularly through the electrification of cars and trucks.
Additionally, both scenarios foresee a decrease in oil use in industry by 2050, reflecting a shift away from diesel generators and increased adoption of alternative fuels in off-road industrial vehicles.
Meanwhile, the reduction in oil demand is concentrated in developed economies, continuing a long-term decline that began in the early 2000s, the producer noted. In these markets, oil consumption is expected to fall from around 45 mb/d in 2022 to between 20 and 7 mb/d by 2050 under the two scenarios.