BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 11. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts global oil production growth in 2024 to average 770 kb/d, boosting oil supply to a record 103 mb/d, Trend reports.
According to the agency's latest outlook, global oil supply rose by 150,000 kb/d to 102.9 mb/d in June. This increase was driven by the recovery of oil production in Brazil, Canada, and Kazakhstan following maintenance work, and a seasonal rise in biofuel output, which offset a significant decline in Saudi Arabian production.
The solid monthly gains pushed second-quarter production 910 kb/d higher than the first quarter, with notable contributions from the United States and biofuel producers. The IEA forecasts further quarter-on-quarter growth for the third quarter, with a projected increase of 770 kb/d, primarily from non-OPEC+ countries, which are expected to provide 600 kb/d of the gains.
In 2024, non-OPEC+ output is anticipated to rise by 1.5 mb/d, while OPEC+ production is expected to decline by 740 kb/d, assuming existing voluntary cuts are maintained.
Looking ahead to 2025, the IEA projects global oil supply gains to be even stronger, at 1.8 mb/d, reaching a new high of 104.8 mb/d. Non-OPEC+ countries are forecast to lead this growth for the third consecutive year, adding 1.5 mb/d. If voluntary OPEC+ cuts remain in place, the alliance’s output could see a modest increase of 340 kb/d.