BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 15. The US economy is expected to maintain healthy momentum through the end of 2024, bolstered by strong household consumption and gradually improving manufacturing activity, according to the latest OPEC outlook, Trend reports.
However, despite the positive economic backdrop, oil demand will see mixed trends in the coming months, the bloc noted.
For the fourth quarter of 2024, OPEC projects US oil demand to grow by 170,000 b/d year-on-year, reaching an average of 20.85 mb/d. This growth is largely driven by robust air travel, with jet fuel (kerosene) continuing to be a key contributor to demand. However, seasonal factors are expected to weigh on driving activity, as road mobility typically slows during the winter months.
Looking ahead to 2025, OPEC forecasts that US oil demand will grow at a more modest pace. Economic activity is anticipated to remain healthy in the first quarter of 2025, supporting both the petrochemical sector and overall mobility. Oil demand is expected to increase by 35,000 b/d during this period, with jet fuel and LPG leading product demand growth. Despite this, demand for diesel and naphtha is predicted to stay subdued, as the manufacturing sector is yet to fully recover.
For the full year 2025, US oil demand is projected to rise by 42,000 b/d year-on-year, averaging 20.5 mb/d. While air travel and petrochemical demand are expected to continue driving growth, the pace will likely be tempered by ongoing weakness in manufacturing-related fuel demand.