BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 25. China's oil demand is expected to rebound in 2025 by 190,000 b/d to 16.8 mb/d, says the latest outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Trend reports.
China's apparent oil demand declined by 70,000 b/d year-on-year in September, reaching 16.9 mb/d, according to the agency. This marks the sixth straight month of contraction, although the decline was slightly smaller than previously expected, surpassing last month's estimate by 180,000 b/d.
The IEA attributed the ongoing downturn to weak industrial activity and reduced petrochemical inputs, with significant year-on-year declines in LPG/ethane, naphtha, and gasoil. While mobility fuels have been less affected by the country's economic sluggishness, a growing trend of substituting oil with alternative fuels in transportation continues to hinder overall consumption.
However, the IEA anticipates a slight rebound in demand in the fourth quarter of 2024, projecting a modest increase of 140,000 b/d for the year to 16.6 mb/d. This will be driven by moderate rises in certain fuels, though contracting gasoil deliveries will continue to weigh on the overall growth. Looking ahead to 2025, demand is expected to rise by 190,000 b/d, marking a more substantial recovery.
In the broader non-OECD region, oil demand rose by 590,000 b/d in the third quarter of 2024, with notable increases in India, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia. While China’s contraction contributed to a slower quarterly growth rate, the total increase was still 90,000 b/d higher than the IEA’s previous forecast. Non-OECD demand is expected to rise by an average of 920,000 b/d in 2024, with a more robust increase of 1.1 mb/d forecast for 2025.
