BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 7. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts significant shifts in global oil production and consumption, highlighting continued strong growth outside of OPEC+ nations, Trend reports.
Despite OPEC+ restrictions limiting global oil production growth, the EIA expects production from non-OPEC+ countries to remain robust. Global petroleum and liquid fuels production is projected to increase by 0.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024. This growth will be driven by a 1.3 million-b/d decline in production from OPEC+ countries, offset by a more than 1.8 million-b/d increase from non-OPEC+ nations, including the United States, Canada, Guyana, and Brazil.
Looking ahead to 2025, the EIA anticipates a further increase in global liquid fuels production, expected to rise by 2.1 million b/d. This growth will be the result of a 0.7 million-b/d increase from OPEC+ countries and a 1.4 million-b/d rise from non-OPEC+ nations as OPEC+ production cuts are phased out throughout the year.
In terms of consumption, the EIA projects global liquid fuels demand will grow by 1.1 million b/d in 2024 and 1.6 million b/d in 2025. This forecast is slightly reduced from previous estimates, with the revised growth reflecting a 0.2 million-b/d decrease. Nearly all of the expected demand growth will come from non-OECD countries, which are expected to increase their liquid fuels consumption by 1.1 million b/d in 2024 and 1.4 million b/d in 2025.
The forecast for petroleum consumption growth in China has been adjusted downward due to slower economic activity and recent statistics showing reduced diesel demand, crude oil imports, and refinery runs. China’s GDP grew by 4.7% in the second quarter of 2024, falling short of the government’s 5% target. As a result, the EIA now expects petroleum and liquid fuels consumption in China to increase by approximately 0.3 million b/d in both 2024 and 2025, lower than the 0.5 million b/d average growth rate from 2015 to 2019.
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