BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 16. Average annual inflation in Azerbaijan is projected to decline to 4.3% in 2030, while investment in fixed assets is expected to reach 28.4 billion manat ($16.7 billion).
This was reflected in the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework prepared by the country's Ministry of Finance for the next four years.
According to the forecasts, the average annual inflation rate, projected at 5.7% in 2026, is expected to decline to 5.3% in 2027, 4.8% in 2028, 4.6% in 2029, and 4.3% in 2030.
The forecasts prepared by the Ministry of Economy take into account several factors, including the actual inflation rate recorded so far this year; the relative decline in global commodity and food prices and its impact on import prices; the dynamics of the nominal effective exchange rate index; the assumption that the exchange rate will remain stable; and the effects of changes in tariffs for regulated goods and services.
According to the document, the manat’s exchange rate against the US dollar is assumed to remain stable at its current-year level throughout the 2027–2030 period.
Meanwhile, investment in fixed assets is projected to increase over the medium term. Total investment is expected to reach 25.4 billion manat ($14.9 billion) in 2027, 26.9 billion manat ($15.8 billion) in 2028, 27.9 billion manat ($16.4 billion) in 2029, and 28.4 billion manat ($16.7 billion) in 2030.
The non-oil and gas sector is expected to account for an increasing share of total investment. Investment in this sector is projected to amount to 17.4 billion manat ($10.2 billion) in 2027, 18.6 billion manat ($10.9 billion) in 2028, 19.7 billion manat ($11.6 billion) in 2029, and 20.9 billion manat ($12.3 billion) in 2030.
Investment in the oil and gas sector is expected to amount to 8 billion manat ($4.7 billion) in 2027, 8.3 billion manat ($4.9 billion) in 2028, and 8.2 billion manat ($4.8 billion) in 2029, before declining to 7.5 billion manat ($4.4 billion) in 2030.
According to the forecasts, nominal household incomes and expenditures are also expected to continue increasing. Household incomes, which amounted to 89.9 billion manat ($52.9 billion) in 2025, are projected to rise to 98.6 billion manat ($58 billion) in 2026, 107.5 billion manat ($63.2 billion) in 2027, 116.5 billion manat ($68.5 billion) in 2028, 126.7 billion manat ($74.5 billion) in 2029, and 137 billion manat ($80.6 billion) in 2030.
Household expenditures are projected to increase from 88.1 billion manat ($51.8 billion) in 2025 to 96.4 billion manat ($56.7 billion) in 2026, 105.1 billion manat ($61.8 billion) in 2027, 113.9 billion manat ($67 billion) in 2028, 123.9 billion manat ($72.9 billion) in 2029, and 134.1 billion manat ($78.9 billion) in 2030.
Thus, nominal household incomes are expected to exceed expenditures throughout the forecast period. The difference between incomes and expenditures is projected to reach 2.9 billion manat ($1.7 billion) in 2030.
