BAKU, Azerbaijan, Apr.11. Azerbaijan can produce more gas from currently undeveloped gas-fields such as Absheron, Babak and Umid, that can be developed concurrently with the capacity expansion of the TANAP/TAP pipelines, Charles Ellinas, CEO of Cyprus-based energy consultancy e-CNHC told Trend.
“Ever since the start of gas deliveries to Europe Azerbaijan has proved to be a reliable partner and careful not to overstate its capabilities. It has sufficient gas to utilise the full capacity of the pipeline this year sending about 10 billion cubic metres (bcm) gas this year to Europe,” he said.
The expert pointed out that Europe's immediate needs are short to medium-term, with a stated intention to become independent of Russian gas by 2027 if possible, but not later than 2030.
“Beyond that, EU's goal is to accelerate transition to renewables and hydrogen and reduce overall gas consumption by 30% by 2030 and by 80% by 2050. As a result, expanding the capacity of the TANAP/TAP pipelines from the current 16 bcm/yr to the maximum 31 bcm/yr, that might take five years to achieve, is outside Europe's short-term goal. However, it is still possible to secure longer-term gas supply contracts from countries that have access to TAP, ie in central and southeast Europe, to justify such an expansion. This should become clearer during the rest of this year,” said Ellinas.
He went on to add that Azerbaijan has been very responsive to EU's requests for more gas and it is considered to be a reliable partner and natural gas supplier.
“Once gas supply contracts are secured, Azerbaijan can produce more gas from currently undeveloped gas-fields such as Absheron, Babak and Umid, that can be developed concurrently with the capacity expansion of the TANAP/TAP pipelines. Additionally, more gas can be made available through the Turkmenistan-Iran-Azerbaijan swap arrangement. In another option, Azerbaijan can free more gas for export by expanding its renewables power generation capacity. And as a last resort, Iran, KRG or Israel can supply Turkey with more gas freeing the 6bcm/yr gas Turkey currently takes from TANAP for its own use for onward transmission to Europe,” Ellinas concluded.
