BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 16. The World Trade Organization (WTO) expects economic growth in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to slow over the next two years, Trend reports.
According to the WTO's latest forecast, GDP growth at market exchange rates in CIS countries is projected at 2.2% in 2025 under the baseline scenario, and 2.3% in the adjusted forecast. In 2026, growth is expected to ease further to 1.8% in both scenarios.
This comes after a GDP expansion of 3.9% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024.
At the start of the year, WTO economists expected to see continued expansion of world trade in 2025 and 2026, with merchandise trade volume growth picking up gradually over time in line with GDP, and commercial services trade volume growing even faster. A profusion of new tariff measures announced and implemented since January prompted WTO economists to re-examine the trade landscape, resulting in a significant downgrade to the outlook for merchandise trade, and a smaller reduction in the outlook for services trade.
After adjusting baseline projections to account for the impact of recently announced tariffs and heightened trade policy uncertainty, WTO economists now foresee a -0.2% contraction in merchandise trade in 2025 – down from +2.9% in 2024 – followed by a 2.5% increase in 2026 reflecting weaker global demand. Meanwhile, growth in commercial services trade is expected to slow to 4.0% this year from 6.8% last year before ticking up to 4.1% next year.
