BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 30. The Central Bank surplus of Azerbaijan in 2022 was by far the largest in the region hitting record high level of 30 percent of GDP, the Renaissance Capital investment bank told Trend.
"We see no major drivers to revise the (fixed) Azerbaijan manat rate forecast from 1.70 manat/$. Foreign exchange operations within the fiscal rule as well as abundant FX reserves of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan – the second largest in the region, covering 8 months of imports – are sufficient to curb the effect of the oil and gas prices volatility on the medium-term horizon, we believe," the bank said.
According to the Renaissance Capital's estimations, with such a strong starting point no pressure for national currency devaluation is expected, even for low-fuel-prices scenario.
"We neither see any intention of the authorities to appreciate the currency given the role of minerals export revenues to the country and the state budget as well as an uncertainty of the longer-term global oil outlook," the bank added.
Meanwhile, Renaissance Capital forecasts Azerbaijan's GDP growth in 2023 at 3 percent.
According to the bank, Azerbaijan's GDP growth in 2022 reached 4.6 percent year-on-year, decelerating from 5.6 percent in 2021.
