BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 17. Crude output from OPEC+ in 2023 is expected to amount to 51.8 million barrels per day (mb/d).
According to the data obtained by Trend from the International Energy Agency (IEA), in 3Q2023 and 4Q2023 the group's oil production is forecast to stand at 51.7 mb/d and 51.8 mb/d, respectively.
Based on the IEA's assumptions for demand and non-OPEC+ supply, OPEC+ could be producing 2 mb/d below the call on its crude in July and close to 3 mb/d below in August.
For reference, according to the IEA's data, OPEC+ countries produced some 52.2 mb/d of oil in 2022.
In June, OPEC+ crude oil production from all 23 member countries increased by a small margin of 30,000 b/d, reaching 43.62 mb/d. While Nigeria and Iraq contributed to higher supply, there were slight declines observed in other countries. Iran, which is exempt from OPEC+ cuts, maintained its production around five-year highs. Notably, both Saudi Arabia and Russia maintained steady output levels.
As the IEA noted, within OPEC, supply from member countries remained unchanged at 28.7 mb/d in June compared to the previous month. However, non-OPEC nations in the OPEC+ group slightly increased their volumes by 30,000 b/d, reaching 14.92 mb/d.
The overall production from the 19 members subject to quotas experienced a modest increase of 70,000 b/d, reaching 37.03 mb/d. As a result, the effective spare capacity of the bloc, excluding crude oil volumes impacted by sanctions in Iran and Russia, stood at 4.6 mb/d. Saudi Arabia and the UAE held approximately 70 percent of this surplus. In comparison to last October, just before the implementation of OPEC+ output curbs, the group's crude supply in June was down by 1.2 mb/d.
During that time, the producer coalition was exceeding the implied requirement for its crude by 1.9 mb/d. Additional cuts implemented by core OPEC+ countries, led by Saudi Arabia and including Russia, took effect in May. However, the overall decline was tempered by significantly higher output from Iran, along with further increases from Nigeria and other countries. Several countries, such as Nigeria, Angola, and Malaysia, continue to produce below their quotas due to operational challenges and capacity limitations, thus not participating in the additional cuts.
