BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 16. Global refinery throughput estimates for 2023 have been revised down by 70,000 b/d month-on-month.
According to the data obtained by Trend from the International Energy Agency (IEA), this adjustment brings the projected 2023 runs to a total increase of 1.7 mb/d, reaching a level of 82.4 mb/d.
Looking ahead to 2024, there is a positive adjustment of 40,000 b/d in the forecast, the IEA says, with throughput rates expected to grow by 1.2 mb/d year-on-year, reaching 83.6 mb/d.
Despite the recent surge in profit margins, which have approached historical highs, the global refining sector has displayed a relatively subdued response, the agency says. In July, OECD refinery utilization rates reached their peak for the year at 85 percent, yet they remained 2 percent lower than the levels seen a year ago. Notably, within the OECD, the Americas have consistently achieved higher utilization rates, both in absolute terms and in comparison to the previous year. Conversely, Europe and Asia Oceania have experienced declines of 4-5 percent year-on-year in utilization rates.
Examining the preliminary data for July, the IEA concludes that it aligns with the expectations for the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) regions, but it falls significantly below the estimates for non-OECD regions. Consequently, the forecasts for the third quarter of 2023 have been downgraded by 490,000 b/d compared to the figures provided in last month's report.
