BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 10. The future of Russian piped gas deliveries to the EU remains a significant uncertainty, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, Trend reports.
According to the agency's estimations, these deliveries decreased by more than half in 2022, plummeting from nearly 140 bcm in 2021 to slightly above 60 bcm. Based on existing flow patterns, the IEA anticipates that Russian piped gas deliveries are poised to decline by approximately 65 percent in 2023, falling within the range of 20-25 bcm.
Russia's gas transit agreement with Ukraine is scheduled to expire by the end of 2024, the agency noted. The Ukrainian Energy Minister has ruled out the possibility of extending this contract.
Consequently, the IEA's forecast assumes that, starting from 2025, only TurkStream string 2, with an annual capacity of 15.75 bcm, will be the source of Russian piped gas supply to the EU.
While short-term capacity booking options might remain available along the Ukrainian transit route for European importers of Russian piped gas, this potential upside is not factored into our baseline forecast, the agency added.
