BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 30. The growth in global natural gas demand from 2022 through 2030 is expected to be significantly slower, compared to the 2.2 percent average growth rate observed between 2010 and 2021, Trend reports.
As the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates, referring to the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), world gas demand will reach its peak by 2030 (4 299 bcm) and maintain a prolonged plateau before gradually decreasing by approximately 100 bcm by 2050 - to 4 173 bcm.
Meanwhile, in the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), demand peaks even earlier, with a 7-percent drop by 2030 - to 3 861 bcm - compared to 2022 levels. By 2050, global gas demand drops to 2 422 bcm.
In the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE), demand experiences a decline of over 2 percent annually from 2022 to 2030 (3 403 bcm), followed by a nearly 8 percent yearly decline between 2030 and 2040. The decline rates are moderated after 2040 due to the increasing use of natural gas with carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) for low-emission hydrogen production. By 2050, as indicated in the NZE scenario, world gas demand declines sharply - to 919 bcm.
As the IEA noted, across all scenarios, natural gas demand decreases in advanced economies. Strong support for clean energy reduces the share of natural gas in the energy supply by 2030, first in the power sector and then in buildings and industry. Although natural gas remains important for backing up variable renewables, this standby role requires much less gas consumption compared to operating plants as a baseload supply. Additionally, the role of gas in providing flexibility is complemented by alternatives such as batteries and demand response.
For emerging market and developing economies, there is a broader range of potential outcomes for natural gas demand, the agency pointed out. Significant differences arise by 2030, especially as new LNG supplies are expected to keep gas prices low and potentially stimulate substantial demand growth.
However, in the APS and NZE Scenarios, this potential is limited by the rapid growth of renewables in the power sector, which begins to reduce the market share of natural gas after 2030, the IEA added.
