BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 30. While global maritime trade is poised to grow by an impressive 17 percent by 2030, global marine fuel sales are expected to experience a more modest 4-percent increase, Trend reports.
According to the analysis from the Wood Mackenzie, this disparity is primarily a consequence of stringent energy efficiency regulations introduced by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), which are effectively curbing fuel consumption in both new and existing vessels.
One of the key regulations driving this shift is the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEXI), accompanied by an operational carbon intensity indicator (CII). These measures are set to tighten fuel efficiency regulations for existing ships, starting from the beginning of this year. Their primary objective is to ensure that the ambitious IMO 2030 carbon intensity target can be met, marking a significant step towards a greener and more sustainable maritime sector.
In the near term, global oil marine bunkers are expected to reach their peak in 2025 at just under 5.4 mb/d, the research says. Marine LNG is set to become the main source of growth over the next few years, displacing approximately 0.6 mb/d of oil consumption by 2030.
Nonetheless, the long-term outlook for the global marine fuel market is marked by a gradual decline that is expected to commence in the early 2030s. This phenomenon can be attributed to the relentless pursuit of improved fuel efficiency, which will, paradoxically, erode demand despite the anticipated expansion of global maritime trade.
