BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 25. The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates a drop in China's coal consumption by 2024, followed by a leveling off until 2026, Trend reports.
During this period, the agency expects a rebound in hydropower output, along with a substantial uptick in electricity generation from solar PV and wind sources. However, as the IEA noted, the trajectory of China's economic growth and its coal usage in the upcoming years remains uncertain.
The country's economy is undergoing significant structural shifts as it shifts away from infrastructure-led, energy-intensive growth. The speed at which this transition happens and the simultaneous expansion of clean energy capacity will profoundly influence the future of coal, the agency said in its outlook, noting that, in the short term, the availability of hydropower is a critical variable, as coal serves as a backup when China's hydroelectric output falls short.
At the same time, the IEA noted that India, Indonesia, and other emerging economies are poised to continue relying on coal to fuel robust economic growth, despite their commitments to accelerate the adoption of renewables and other low-emission technologies. In contrast, advanced economies, given their distinct economic and energy landscapes, don't appear to face a significant risk of witnessing a resurgence in coal usage.
Coal-fired power plants are consistently being shut down in these developed economies, and industrial coal consumption is projected to decrease due to factors like weak industrial output, enhanced efficiency, and a growing shift to alternative fuels, the agency explained.
Overall, the IEA anticipates a decline in global coal demand by 2024, followed by a plateau until 2026. This trend is expected even in the absence of governments announcing and implementing stronger clean energy and climate policies. Consequently, global coal consumption in 2026 is predicted to be 2.3 percent lower than in 2023, though China remains a pivotal factor in this equation.
