BAKU, Azerbaijan, February 22. Forecast for OECD Americas runs in 2024 anticipates an average of 18.6 mb/d, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 150,000 b/d, Trend reports.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), this is mainly attributed to reduced capacity in the United States.
In December, US crude runs averaged 16.4 mb/d but experienced a significant decrease of 1.7 mb/d throughout January, primarily due to an extreme cold weather event. Refineries along the US Gulf Coast accounted for 1.5 mb/d of this decline. As a result, the agency expects that February's US crude processing, reaching 14.9 mb/d, will represent the seasonal low point, with refinery restarts being partially offset by planned maintenance.
Meanwhile, Canadian crude processing in December 2023 reached a four-month peak at 1.8 mb/d following the conclusion of refinery maintenance. Preliminary weekly data suggests a month-on-month dip of 80,000 b/d in runs during January due to weather-related curtailments.
Mexican crude runs increased by 70,000 b/d month-on-month in December, reaching a three-month high of 825,000 b/d. However, as the IEA noted, despite this, capacity utilization remains stagnant at close to 50%, with a year-on-year flat trend. There is limited evidence indicating a slowdown in Maya exports from the Dos Bocas terminal in Mexico, aside from loading delays caused by weather, which one would typically anticipate before the start-up of the 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery.
Similarly, refineries in the US Gulf Coast have not reported any shortage in Maya heavy sour crude supplies. Consequently, despite recent statements from Mexican authorities about the imminent commencement of commercial production at Olmeca in the coming weeks, our assumption leans towards a somewhat delayed start.
