BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 19. Eurasia’s refining sector is set to expand by just 180,000 barrels per day (kb/d) from 2024 to 2030, driven mainly by small-scale upgrades in Russia, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Trend reports.
Key additions include a 70 kb/d condensate splitter at Ust-Luga (2024), a 60 kb/d expansion at Afipsky (due Q2 2025), and a 50 kb/d boost at Novoshakhtinsk (Q1 2026). Russia continues to favor modernizing existing refineries over building new ones, aiming to improve product yields and maintain export competitiveness.
Crude exports from the region are forecast to fall by 270 kb/d to 7 mb/d by 2030, while refined product exports remain steady at around 2 mb/d, supported by improved efficiency.
The outlook remains uncertain amid sanctions, ageing infrastructure, and limited foreign investment. Outside Russia, projects in Kazakhstan and Georgia remain in early stages and are not yet included in the IEA’s baseline forecast.
