BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 8. Heightened geopolitical tensions have prompted the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to revise upward its crude oil price forecasts for the second half of 2025, according to the agency’s latest outlook, Trend reports.
In its June report, finalized just before a flare-up in the conflict over Iran’s nuclear program, the EIA projected that Brent crude oil spot prices will average $66 per barrel in the second half of the year—nearly $5 higher than last month’s forecast. The revision reflects a geopolitical risk premium that surged in June following concerns over potential disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude oil prices climbed for the first time in five months last month, averaging $71 per barrel. A spike in prices occurred mid-June after reports emerged that Iran might consider closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global petroleum consumption is transported. Brent prices surged from $71 per barrel on June 12 to $80 per barrel at the height of the tensions on June 19. However, prices quickly retreated below $70 per barrel as the situation de-escalated.
Despite the short-term price surge, the EIA maintains that rising global oil inventories will exert downward pressure on prices over the longer term. The agency estimates that global inventories grew by 1.2 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025 and forecasts an additional build of 0.9 million barrels per day in the second half. Inventory growth is expected to continue into 2026, averaging 1.1 million barrels per day.
For the full year 2025, Brent crude is now expected to average $69 per barrel, an upward revision of $3 from the previous month’s forecast. However, prices are projected to decline to an average of $58 per barrel in 2026, as global supply continues to outpace demand.
