BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 11. U.S. coal consumption is expected to climb in 2025 before declining the following year, driven by shifts in electricity demand and planned retirements of coal-fired power capacity, according to the latest forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Trend reports.
The agency projects total coal use in 2025 will reach 439 million short tons (MMst), a 7% increase compared with 2024. The rise reflects higher natural gas prices and stronger overall demand for electricity, following a 13% jump in consumption during the first half of 2025 after a cold winter. On a regional basis, all four U.S. census regions are expected to see higher coal consumption compared with 2024.
In contrast, coal use is forecast to fall to 424 MMst in 2026 as 6 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity are scheduled for retirement in 2025. Consumption in the South and Northeast is projected to rise modestly, but declines in the Midwest and West are expected to offset those gains.
The EIA also expects a tightening in coal inventories. End-of-year coal stocks for electric power are projected at 106 MMst in 2025, a 17% decline from 2024, with the largest reductions in the Midwest and South - regions with significant coal-fired power generation. By the end of 2026, stocks are forecast to fall further to 92 MMst, as a 6% drop in production outpaces a 4% decline in consumption.
Monthly consumption is expected to dip to 34 MMst in September, down from 42 MMst in August, as the U.S. enters the shoulder season. Overall, the EIA anticipates a 1% increase in coal use in the second half of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024.
