BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 13. Global crude runs reached a record 85.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in August, said the International Energy Agency (IEA), rebounding sharply after a counter-seasonal dip in July due to lower throughput in China and the United States, Trend reports.
Annual growth accelerated to 1.3 mb/d in the third quarter of 2025, up from just 160 kb/d in the first half of the year, with average runs at 84.4 mb/d.
Despite the record throughput, the IEA slightly lowered its 2025 and 2026 forecasts to 83.5 mb/d and 84 mb/d, respectively, reflecting slowing growth next year. Refining margins remained robust in August, although Europe gave back half of July’s extraordinary gains as diesel cracks weakened. Late-summer rallies in gasoline cracks, however, lifted US Gulf Coast and European margins to 18-month highs by early September.
Wider discounts for heavy sour grades such as Western Canadian Select (WCS) boosted coking margins relative to WTI cracking profitability. Asian refiners, particularly those processing sour crude, lagged behind Atlantic Basin gains, constrained by Dubai’s strong premium in August.
Maintenance is expected to curb activity in September across the United States, Europe, and China, following the summer peak. The IEA also noted that a wave of attacks on Russian refineries, striking roughly 2 mb/d of capacity, has led to an estimated 250 kb/d reduction in Russian crude throughput for August, with a further 90 kb/d cut expected on average in the second half of 2025.
In China, crude runs fell short of expectations in July, prompting a downward revision of August throughput by 200 kb/d, though the IEA maintained its fourth-quarter forecast. Meanwhile, US tariffs imposed on Indian imports of Russian crude have had only a marginal impact so far, with preliminary trade data showing a slight decline. At India’s Vadinar refinery, crude imports fell to a three-year low of 240 kb/d in August, reflecting the use of solely Russian crude and the risk of secondary sanctions affecting product exports.
