BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 9. Benchmark gas prices in Europe and Asia have stabilized following a brief surge in June triggered by tensions between Israel and Iran, according to the latest outlook from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), Trend reports.
The report notes that from mid-July to late September, Europe’s TTF front-month prices held within a narrow range of $10.66–11.93/MMBtu, while Asia’s Argus North-East Asia (ANEA) benchmark traded between $10.79–12.92/MMBtu. The relative calm followed months of volatility and reflects a more balanced global LNG market.
Since early October 2024, it has been generally more profitable to ship U.S. LNG to Europe than to Asia, the study finds. This shift has been evident in trade flows: European imports of U.S. LNG reached a record 23 billion cubic meters (Bcm) in the first quarter of 2025, easing slightly to 22.7 Bcm in Q2 and 20.6 Bcm in Q3. The growth was supported by a rise in total U.S. LNG exports and China’s continued tariffs on American LNG, which have halted Chinese purchases since February 2025.
The ramp-up in global LNG supply, particularly from the United States, combined with stagnant non-European demand, has softened market conditions, pushing down forward prices across 2025. Still, in Europe, the end of Russian gas transit via Ukraine and the need to rebuild storage stocks have kept a floor under TTF prices through the summer.
Looking ahead, OIES warns that the winter of 2025/26 could be pivotal. Although global LNG supply is expanding, the institute says this may be the final winter before market balances loosen significantly. “The market remains susceptible to tightness in the event of a surge in weather-related demand,” the report cautions.
Europe enters the 2025/26 heating season with storage levels below those of the past two years, heightening the importance of LNG imports to meet demand. The combination of lower starting stocks and reduced Russian pipeline deliveries means it is unlikely that Europe will end the season with 60 Bcm in storage, as it did in 2023 and 2024.
Even reaching 36 Bcm by the end of winter 2025/26 will require smaller withdrawals — around 52–54 Bcm — implying the need for higher LNG inflows and lower gas demand.
Ultimately, OIES concludes that while Europe’s storage replenishment efforts supported gas prices in Q3 2025, the pace of stock withdrawals this winter will shape the market balance and price trends into summer 2026, despite increasing global LNG supply.
