BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 18
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
No new oil and natural gas fields are required in the net-zero emissions (NZE) scenario beyond those already approved for development, and supplies become increasingly concentrated in a small number of low‐cost producers, Trend reports with reference to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
For oil, OPEC’s share of global oil supply grows from around 37 percent in recent years to 52 percent in 2050, a level higher than at any point in the history of oil markets, reads the IEA report.
The agency believes that for natural gas, interregional liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade increases from 420 bcm in 2020 over the next five years but it then falls to around 160 bcm in 2050.
“Nearly all exports in 2050 come from the lowest cost and lowest emissions producers. This means that the importance of ensuring adequate supplies of oil and natural gas to the smooth functioning of the global energy system would be quantitatively lower in 2050 than today, but it does not suggest that the risk of a shortfall in supply or sudden price rise is necessarily going to diminish, and a shortfall or sudden price rise would still have large repercussions for a number of sectors,” reads the report.
Energy security is an important consideration for governments and those they serve, and the pathway to net‐zero emissions must take account of it, according to the IEA.
“Concerns about energy security have traditionally been associated with oil and natural gas supplies. The drop in oil and gas demand and the increased diversity of the energy sources used in the NZE may reduce some risks, but they do not disappear. There are also new potential vulnerabilities associated with the need to maintain reliable, flexible and secure electricity systems, and with the increase in demand for raw minerals for clean energy technologies. Improving energy efficiency remains the central measure for increasing energy security – even with rapid growth in low‐ emissions electricity generation, the safest energy supplies are those that are not needed.”
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