BAKU, Azerbaijan, Jan.9. The projection for the regional average carbon-price level in Europe is USD 95/tCO2 in 2030 and USD 135/tCO2 by 2050, Trend reports with reference to DNV, an international accredited registrar and classification society headquartered in Norway.
“Europe has established carbon pricing nationally and regionally, with clear upward pricing trends, and the EU ETS is a main tool to finance the transition cost. EU and UK NDC pledges target 55 percent and 68 percent reductions, respectively, in CO2 emissions by 2030 relative to 1990. Our forecast does not include country-specific, non-energy-related CO2 emissions, and Europe is larger than the EU. With that caveat, we see Europe’s energy-related emissions down 48 percent by 2030 relative to 1990, more than the EU’s initial Paris Agreement pledge of 40 percent, but certainly less than 55 percent,” reads the latest DNV report.
The company forecasts that Europe will have reduced its energy-related emissions by 79 percent between 2020 and 2050, at which point it will be emitting 0.6 GtCO2 per year, therefore falling short of net-zero pledges prevalent among region countries.
DNV believes that transport and manufacturing will reduce emissions the quickest.
“In manufacturing, this is mainly due to declining use of coal and gas, as the role of cheaper green electricity increases. Emissions from oil will be the largest, and represent a constant yearly share of around half of CO2 emissions in the next three decades. Emissions from coal use will decline rapidly, almost disappearing as coal use will dwindle. Those from oil will gradually decline by 2050 to about a quarter of today’s level, primarily because of lower oil use. Overall energy-related emissions in 2050 are 646 MtCO2 after CCS has captured and stored 179 MtCO2, which captures 22% of Europe’s energy-related emissions in 2050. CCS — though limited in Europe — is still capturing the largest such share among all regions. CCS will not be a big enough industry to counter carbon emissions, even with a 135 USD/t carbon price. In relative CO2 emissions, Europe’s 1.2 tCO2/person is well below world average.”
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