Azerbaijan, Baku, 27 February / Trend, E. Kosolapova /
When adding new members to the Customs Union, EU experience should be taken into consideration, director of Risk Assessment Group, Doctor of Political Sciences Dosym Satpayev said.
"There are many nuances; in particular, Kazakhstan has repeatedly stated that, given the experience of the European Union, this process should be undertaken carefully without problems created for other members of the Customs Union. In particular, it was proposed to strengthen requirements for each new applicant for membership in the Customs Union. It was mainly about the low-budget deficit and small public debt the applicant-state should be associated with. That is, it all had to do with the problems faced by the European Union, in particular the problem with Greece," Kazakh political analyst Satpayev told Trend.
That is, according to Satpaev, there were concerns that accession to the Customs Union of the weaker in the economic plan members would lead to Russia and Kazakhstan having to fund them and provide certain assistance.
At the same time, he said, it is unlikely that Kazakhstan would refuse to support other countries, declaring their desire to join the Customs Union, as Kazakhstan itself is the initiator of the integration process, and President Nursultan Nazarbayev regularly declares that creation of the Customs Union was his idea.
According to Satpayev, the intentions of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, negotiating on accession to the Customs Union are not at as altruistic, and these countries pursue their own interests.
"It is very important for Kyrgyzstan to gain access to the markets of Kazakhstan and Russia. A large number of citizens of Kyrgyzstan trade Chinese goods. Thus, when the Customs Union was created, problems appeared. Decline in shuttle trade afflicted the economic state of many citizens of Kyrgyzstan. Therefore, opening of the border is very important for Kyrgyzstan," Satpayev said.
At the same time, according to the expert, it's pointless for Kyrgyzstan to hurry on this matter.
"Kyrgyzstan, on one hand, expresses its desire to join the Customs Union, and on the other hand, plays for time. Perhaps this is due to the fact that Kyrgyz leadership has no unambiguous position yet. Perhaps they are waiting for accession to the WTO, which will allow them to cooperate with Russia and Kazakhstan under more favorable economic conditions," Satpayev said.
For Tajikistan, according to experts, it is also important to join the Customs Union, as a large number of Tajik citizens are working in Russia.
"Thus, it is profitable for Tajikistan to enter a single labor market, which is being created in the Customs Union," Satpayev said.
According to experts, Armenia may join the Customs Union in the future, considering its close ties with Russia and economic dependence in the country.
Satpaev said all potential members of the Customs Union are also counting on investments from Russia and Kazakhstan.
"At one time, Kazakhstan and Russia created Anti-Crisis Fund within the Eurasian Economic Community. The fund is already funding Belarus providing a quite good support: the country has already received about $ 800 million within the first tranche. Naturally, other countries are also counting on such loans," he said.
However, in his opinion, the accession to the Customs Union may carry certain risks for new members.
"The fact that these are the countries with weak economies should be taken into consideration; these countries are in need of investment and support. There is a risk that, upon accession to the Customs Union the influence of Russian businesses and Russia as a whole should increase in these countries," Satpayev said.
In addition, he said, there may be some negative effects, which are difficult to predict today.
"The risks were not calculated by the members of the Customs Union. Kazakhstan has repeatedly stated recently that after the establishment of the Customs Union, export of Kazakh products decreased to Russia and Belarus, while imports increased. That is, a negative trade balance has been formed. Although, this contradicts the statements made by officials, "Satpayev said.
Earlier, Russian Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Andrey Krutko said that Bishkek will join the Customs Union by the end of this year.
