ASTANA, Kazakhstan, November 24. The National Bank of Kazakhstan has revised its forecast for the country's economic growth for 2024 and 2025, Trend reports.
According to the forecast, in 2023, GDP growth, as before, is expected to be 4.2-5.2 percent.
The forecast for 2024 was reduced to 3.2-4.2 percent due to a possible postponement of the start of increasing production at Tengizchevroil to the end of 2024 or to 2025.
In this regard, taking into account the effect of a lower base, the forecast for 2025 has been increased to 5.5-6.5 percent.
As the bank noted, the main and significant factor increasing the risks of the forecast is the uncertainty regarding oil production parameters in 2024-2025.
Kazakhstan's economic growth reached 4.9 percent from January through October 2023. Positive dynamics in the real sector amounted to 3.8 percent; in the service sector, they were 5.4 percent.
Positive dynamics are observed in all major sectors. The greatest growth is demonstrated by: construction (12.5 percent), trade (10.4 percent), information and communication (8 percent), and transport (7 percent).
The growth rate of investment in fixed capital amounted to 12.6 percent.
From January through September 2023, foreign trade turnover increased by 2.4 percent and amounted to $102 billion.
The manufacturing industry grew by 3.2 percent, the output of the mining industry increased by 6.1 percent, and the volume of completed construction work increased by 12.5 percent.
