BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 20. China remains the primary driver of global oil demand growth and is expected to see a year-on-year increase of 1.7 mb/d in the fourth quarter of 2023.
According to the data received by Trend from the International Energy Agency (IEA), this accounts for over 80 percent of the global gains during the quarter.
Thus, the PRC's projected annual demand for 2023 is estimated at 16.4 mb/d, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.8 mb/d and surpassing the 2019 benchmark by 2.3 mb/d.
Despite the annual growth showing significant strength when compared to the low baseline of 2022 due to lockdowns, the absolute level of apparent demand has remained relatively stable since the second quarter of 2023, the agency noted.
After an initial increase in road fuel usage, as restrictions were eased, the continuous expansion of China's petrochemical sector and the resurgence of international air travel contributed to incremental gains in the second and third quarters of 2023. However, the IEA noted that aligning with the trend observed in many other parts of the world, the initial signs of a slowdown in oil product demand are now becoming apparent, and October marked the first month since May to exhibit a month-on-month decline of 320,000 b/d.
Conversely, as the agency pointed out, global demand outside China is anticipated to decline by 1.3 mb/d over the same period.
Looking ahead to the next year, China is expected to exhibit strong growth of 710,000 b/d, representing two-thirds of the total global gains, the IEA added.
