BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 18. In the past, experts and scholars often made predictions extending 30 to 50 years into the future. Today, however, predicting even the near-term is fraught with uncertainty. As global powers modernize their weaponry, the nature of warfare itself is shifting. Conflicts are no longer defined only by military force but by the manipulation and dissemination of information - content that can shape political outcomes. Consequently, the world no longer requires only defenses against bombs but also systems to guard against disinformation. Unfortunately, while shelters from bombs are relatively easy to create, robust defenses against misinformation have yet to be developed.
It is no coincidence that the Global Risks Report 2026, published just before the 56th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, lists disinformation as one of the most pressing global concerns.
Disinformation has become a key element of geopolitical tensions, and it will likely remain one of the most challenging issues in the years ahead. Those who ushered the world into the digital era might not have fully anticipated that cold, emotionless screens could be easily manipulated to deceive. Written words and numbers, though efficient, lack the immediacy and authenticity of human interaction. This is particularly concerning as artificial intelligence increasingly shapes virtual platforms, eroding the human touch and replacing it with an artificial interface.
The Global Risks Report, which focuses on vulnerable sectors of the global economy, will be a major topic of discussion in Davos. Compiled by over 11,000 experts from 116 countries, the report makes one thing clear: the greatest risk in the next two years will stem from geopolitical tensions. Disinformation ranks second, while societal polarization is third.
The report also highlights specific risks facing Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus. In the near term, cybersecurity threats, environmental issues such as pollution, and ongoing challenges related to disinformation are expected to affect the country.
Across regions, the general landscape of global risks is strikingly similar. Disinformation ranks second in the two-year forecast, while cybersecurity risks are placed sixth. However, concerns about artificial intelligence are rising rapidly. Once ranked 30th in the two-year forecast, the risks associated with AI have jumped to 5th place in the decade-long outlook. This shift reflects growing apprehension about the broader societal, economic, and security implications of AI technologies.
The Global Risks Report underscores how both the physical and digital worlds are being shaped by falsehoods and manipulation. In today’s information environment, the spread of disinformation has become an organized and strategic endeavor. Unfortunately, distinguishing truth from falsehood in the digital space is increasingly difficult.
In this environment, countries are arming not only their military forces but also their citizens with information. An informed public has the potential to play a role similar to that of a soldier on the battlefield. However, combating disinformation is often more complex than defending against traditional military threats.
Information warfare has become so pervasive that it is difficult for countries to clearly define their defenses. Disinformation is intentionally crafted to be persuasive, often making false narratives appear more appealing than the truth. Azerbaijan, for example, experienced this firsthand during the 44-day Second Karabakh War.
The war and its aftermath highlighted the profound impact that disinformation can have on public perception. In these turbulent times, misinformation became a powerful tool used to shape narratives, complicating Azerbaijan’s efforts to communicate its position to both domestic and international audiences.
Despite the challenges, Azerbaijan's leadership during the conflict emphasized effective state management, political-military coordination, and resource mobilization. In the post-war period, the country has focused on rebuilding infrastructure and fostering economic development, particularly in the Karabakh region. These efforts aim to strengthen Azerbaijan's economic resilience and regional competitiveness, positioning the country for long-term stability.
The report also outlines challenges for Armenia and Georgia. In Armenia, internal political tensions are expected to continue to undermine economic stability, with issues such as inadequate public services and rising social inequality contributing to discontent. In Georgia, the growing threat of cyberattacks and environmental risks such as biodiversity loss and weakened ecosystems could jeopardize the country's economic and social stability.
Globally, the economic outlook for the next decade is far from optimistic. Only 1% of experts forecast stability, while 40% expect continued instability. A majority anticipate a turbulent global situation, with little confidence in a peaceful resolution. These findings highlight the challenges that countries like Azerbaijan face as they navigate a rapidly changing world.