BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 17. World oil supply in 2023 is forecast to reach 100.8 mb/d, Trend reports citing the latest oil market outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
According to the report, the forecast has been downgraded by 400,000 b/d from March outlook.
Thus, global supply growth in the current year is expected to decline to 1.2 mb/d (4.6 mb/d in 2022).
"World oil production was already falling in March, largely because of Russia – which had announced that it would turn down the taps by 500,000 b/d purportedly due to sanctions and G7 price caps. Based on our estimates, Moscow appears not to have delivered in full, but its decline helped push down total oil supply in the month to 101.2 mb/d (down by 450,000 b/d month-on-month). OPEC+ oil output (including condensates and NGLs) fell by 430,000 b/d, while non-OPEC+ production inched down 20,000 b/d," the report said.
As the IEA noted, OPEC+ output cuts announced on April 2 are expected to further tighten the world oil market balance for the whole 2023.
"Extra curbs of 1.66 mb/d, led by Saudi Arabia and its Middle East neighbors – and including Russia, are on top of a 2 mb/d reduction in the bloc’s target that took effect last November. After kicking in next month, the cuts are due to remain in place throughout 2023," the report said.
According to the agency, as a result, OPEC+ crude output is forecast to drop by 1.4 mb/d from March through December, while non-OPEC+ production is set to increase by around 1 mb/d.
"The additional OPEC+ curbs, along with sanctions on Russia, will deepen the group’s year-on-year decline to 760,000 b/d compared to a massive 3.1 mb/d expansion in 2022 as it phased out record 2020 supply cuts. Non-OPEC+ dominates growth this year, with volumes rising 1.9 mb/d versus 1.5 mb/d last year. The US and Brazil lead these gains," the report added.
