BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 5. Kazakhstan has fully met its domestic diesel demand through local production, while the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) remains too modest to affect the country’s fuel consumption structure in the near term, said Yernar Akhmettayev, Senior Research Analyst at Eurasian Energy Service, S&P Global Commodity Insights, during a recent webinar, Trend reports.
"The development of electric and hybrid transport is gaining momentum, and this will certainly influence the fuel consumption structure," Akhmettayev said. "However, over the next 10 years, this effect will likely remain limited, as gasoline-powered vehicles will continue to dominate Kazakhstan’s transport fleet".
He noted that while the number of EVs has grown significantly in absolute terms, their overall share still amounts to only a quarter of a percent of Kazakhstan’s five million passenger cars.
Turning to diesel production, Akhmettayev emphasized its steady growth. "In 2024, diesel output reached 5.5 million tons - a 27% increase compared with 2017. However, diesel consumption is also rising and amounted to roughly the same 5.5 million tons in 2024," he said.
This balance, he explained, means Kazakhstan now fully covers its domestic diesel needs through local production, just as it does with gasoline. Still, Akhmettayev pointed out that part of the demand is linked to so-called 'gray exports'.
"According to S&P Global Commodity Insights’ analysis, in addition to around 150,000 tons of diesel used legally in cross-border transportation, another 150,000 to 200,000 tons may have been exported abroad through unauthorized channels," he said.