BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 22. Azerbaijan’s gross international reserves are projected to increase from $13.6 billion in 2025 to $18.6 billion in 2026, according to the latest report by Netherlands-based ING Group.
This would represent a 36.8% year-on-year increase. The reserves are then forecast to decline to $17.6 billion in 2027 and $15.6 billion in 2028.
The table below shows the dynamics of Azerbaijan’s gross international reserves over the past decade.
|
Year |
Gross international reserves (billion USD) |
|
2016 |
7.3 |
|
2017 |
7 |
|
2018 |
6.7 |
|
2019 |
7.1 |
|
2020 |
7.8 |
|
2021 |
8.3 |
|
2022 |
10.8 |
|
2023 |
13.7 |
|
2024 |
12.7 |
|
2025 |
13.6 |
“As on the fiscal side, higher oil prices have materially improved the external outlook, reversing much of the deterioration seen in 2025. As each US$10/bbl of oil price adds annual exports of around 4% of GDP, in 2026F the current account surplus may exceed 10% of GDP. In the meantime, sovereign assets equivalent to 115% of GDP keep growing and continue to provide substantial protection against potential external shocks. These buffers remain the main support for the AZN peg and broader macro stability. Over the longer term, however, declining hydrocarbon production and limited export diversification risk is likely to gradually erode the external surplus. Azerbaijan remains one of the region’s strongest external stories, although commodity dependence continues to shape its medium term outlook,” said the ING.
