BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 22. Kazakhstan's crude oil deliveries to IEA member countries are expected to increase in 2026 and 2027, following significant fluctuations in quarterly and monthly volumes this year.
This was reflected in a publication issued by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
According to the report, deliveries of selected Kazakh crude streams to IEA member countries are estimated to average 1.17 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, up 21.9% from 0.96 mb/d in 2025. The figure is projected to rise further to 1.35 mb/d in 2027, an increase of 15.4% compared with 2026, according to Trend’s calculations.
The quarterly figures show a sharp decline at the beginning of 2026, followed by a strong recovery. Deliveries averaged 1.39 mb/d in both the third and fourth quarters of 2025, before falling to 0.92 mb/d in the first quarter of 2026. They then climbed to 1.48 mb/d in the second quarter, up 60.9% quarter-on-quarter, Trend reports.
Monthly data also point to considerable volatility. Deliveries reached 1.57 mb/d in May 2026, before declining to 1.26 mb/d in June, a decrease of 19.7%. They subsequently recovered to 1.49 mb/d in July, rising 18.3% month-on-month, Trend’s calculations show.
The report’s figures do not specify the reasons for these quarterly and monthly changes. However, Kazakhstan’s oil export flows faced operational disruptions during 2026. Reuters reported that maintenance at the Tengiz field and interruptions to loading operations at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal affected shipments. In July, the temporary suspension of terminal operations following attacks on tankers led to production cuts, while CPC exports increased in August as loading activity stabilised. These developments provide broader context for fluctuations in oil flows, although the available information does not establish a direct link between individual incidents and the IEA’s selected-stream delivery figures.
