BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 22. Uzbekistan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by 7.8% in 2026, while consumer price inflation is forecast to decline to 6.9%. The projections point to continued economic expansion and easing inflationary pressures, alongside a wider current account deficit and a gradual decline in unemployment.
This was reflected in the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October 2026 World Economic Outlook.
The IMF projects Uzbekistan’s real GDP growth at 7.7% in 2025, 7.8% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027. The forecast for 2026 represents an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the 2025 level. However, growth is projected to moderate by 1.3 percentage points in 2027 compared with 2026.
Despite this slowdown, the projected 6.5% growth rate in 2027 would remain 1.2 percentage points below the 2025 level. The figures suggest that the economy is expected to maintain a relatively strong pace of expansion, although the rate of growth is projected to ease after 2026.
Consumer prices are projected to increase by 6.9% in 2026, compared with 8.8% in 2025. This represents a decline of 1.9 percentage points, equivalent to a reduction of approximately 21.6% in the inflation rate. In 2027, consumer price inflation is projected to fall further to 5.7%, down 1.2 percentage points from 2026.
Overall, the projected inflation rate for 2027 is 3.1 percentage points below the 2025 level, representing a relative decline of approximately 35.2%. This indicates a substantial moderation in the pace of consumer price increases over the two-year forecast period. Nevertheless, lower inflation does not mean that consumer prices will fall; rather, prices are projected to continue rising, but at a slower rate.
The labor market is also projected to improve. The IMF forecasts Uzbekistan’s unemployment rate at 4.8% in 2025, 4.3% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027. The projected rate for 2026 represents a decline of 0.5 percentage points from 2025, followed by a further decrease of 0.5 percentage points in 2027.
Uzbekistan’s projected unemployment rate in 2027 is 1 percentage point, or approximately 20.8%, below the 2025 level. This points to a continued decline in unemployment over the forecast period.
Uzbekistan’s external balance presents a more challenging picture. The IMF projects the current account deficit at 3.9% of GDP in 2025, widening to 5.1% in 2026 before narrowing to 4.6% in 2027.
The projected deficit for 2026 represents a deterioration of 1.2 percentage points of GDP compared with 2025. In 2027, the deficit is expected to narrow by 0.5 percentage points from the previous year. However, it would remain 0.7 percentage points of GDP wider than in 2025.
According to Trend’s calculations, the projected improvement in the current account balance between 2026 and 2027 would offset approximately 41.7% of the deterioration expected in 2026. This suggests that, although the external balance is projected to improve in 2027, the recovery would not fully reverse the previous year's widening deficit.
Taken together, the IMF’s projections indicate that Uzbekistan is expected to combine continued economic growth with moderating inflation and a declining unemployment rate through 2027. The current account deficit remains an important external indicator to monitor, as its projected widening in 2026 and only partial narrowing in 2027 contrast with the expected improvements in the other three indicators.
