BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 18. The Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES) now expects the global oil market to be balanced in 2025, erasing its previous forecast of a small deficit, and forecasts a growing surplus of 530,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, Trend reports.
The revision follows a downward adjustment to global oil demand expectations for 2025, which have been lowered by 150,000 b/d, primarily due to weaker consumption projections in OECD economies. This change eliminates the previously anticipated 140,000 b/d deficit, resulting in a flat supply-demand balance for the year.
On the supply side, the recent surprise move by OPEC+ to increase its May production increments by 110,000 b/d has been fully offset by a parallel 110,000 b/d reduction in non-OPEC+ supply, particularly from the United States, keeping overall supply projections unchanged.
For 2026, the oil market balance remains in line with last month’s assessment, with both global supply and demand projections revised downward by roughly 220,000 b/d each. OIES now forecasts global oil supply and demand to average 103.7 million b/d in 2025, compared to 102.2 million b/d and 102.7 million b/d in 2024, respectively. In 2026, global supply is expected to rise to 105.3 million b/d, while demand is set to increase to 104.7 million b/d, creating a surplus of 530,000 b/d.
Meanwhile, OECD commercial oil stocks ended February 87.5 million barrels below their five-year average, which is 38.5 million barrels lower than OIES had previously forecast and 45.5 million barrels below February 2024 levels.
Despite the projected market balance in 2025, OIES expects OECD stocks to remain below the five-year average throughout the year, before gradually rebuilding and returning to average levels by the end of 2026.
