BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 5. Kazakhstan is set to significantly expand its oil refining capacity under the recently approved Refining Industry Development Concept for 2025-2040, said Yernar Akhmettayev, Senior Research Analyst at Eurasian Energy Service, S&P Global Commodity Insights, during a recent webinar, Trend reports.
"According to the plan, Kazakhstan aims to increase its refining capacity to 39 million tons per year," Akhmettayev noted. "The Atyrau Refinery’s capacity is expected to rise from 5.5 to 6.7 million tons by 2028, the Shymkent Refinery from 6 to 12 million tons by 2030, and the Pavlodar Refinery from 5.5 to 9 million tons by 2032. In addition, a new refinery with a capacity of at least 10 million tons per year is planned for development by 2030".
He said the capacity expansion is designed to support growing domestic demand while also improving Kazakhstan’s export potential. "Kazakhstan is showing steady growth in petroleum product consumption. The main drivers are economic development and the expansion of key sectors such as transportation, industry, construction, and agriculture. Rising household incomes and an increasing number of vehicles are also contributing to demand growth," Akhmettayev explained.
During the pandemic in 2020, domestic fuel consumption fell to around 14 million tons, but recovery followed. "By 2024, consumption increased by 12% to 16 million tons," Akhmettayev said. "The average annual growth rate was 2.8%, compared with GDP growth averaging 4.4% per year".
However, he added that growth in fuel demand is expected to slow in the coming years. "We expect consumption to reach around 18.5 million tons by 2035," he said. "The reason is the anticipated rise in domestic oil and fuel prices, which will restrain demand".
Akhmettayev highlighted that Kazakhstan has made significant progress in achieving fuel self-sufficiency, largely due to the modernization of its three main refineries. "Thanks to the modernization completed in 2019, Kazakhstan now fully meets its domestic gasoline demand with local production. For comparison, in 2017, Kazakhstan had to import about one-third of its gasoline, mainly from Russia. By 2021, imports had almost fallen to zero, and by 2024, domestic production fully covered demand," he said.
In 2024, gasoline output reached approximately 5.5 million tons, with production concentrated at the three major refineries that account for about 98% of total output. "The Shymkent Refinery led production in 2024 with a 38% share, followed by Atyrau with 30% and Pavlodar with 29%," Akhmettayev said.