BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 11. U.S. natural gas prices are expected to edge higher in the coming months as winter demand and strong LNG exports drive faster-than-normal withdrawals from storage, according to the latest outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Trend reports.
The benchmark Henry Hub spot price is forecast to average $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in the third quarter of 2025, up from an August average of $2.91/MMBtu. Prices are projected to peak at $4.60/MMBtu in January 2026, reflecting tighter market conditions during the winter.
Despite inventories ending August 6% above the five-year average, the EIA expects stocks to be drawn down quickly this winter due to rising LNG exports and flattening U.S. natural gas production. Inventories are forecast to end March 2026 just 1% above the five-year average.
Production growth is set to slow, with U.S. marketed natural gas output averaging 117.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025 before easing slightly to 116.8 Bcf/d in 2026. The Permian Basin, which produces large volumes of associated gas, is expected to see only modest gains, while output in the Bakken and Eagle Ford is projected to decline. In contrast, production from gas-rich regions such as Appalachia and Haynesville is expected to increase.
The EIA also highlighted a notable divergence in energy price trends. While natural gas prices are forecast to nearly double compared with 2024, crude oil prices are expected to fall by 38%, pushing the oil-to-gas price premium to its lowest level since 2005.
