BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 6. Clean hydrogen is expected to play an expanding—though varied—role in global energy systems by 2050, according to Equinor’s latest scenario outlooks, Trend reports.
Its contribution to final energy use will depend heavily on the pace of decarbonisation, infrastructure rollout, and cost dynamics across regions.
In the Walls scenario, clean hydrogen demand rises from near-zero today to nearly 200 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) by 2050. While this marks a substantial increase, hydrogen remains a niche player, making up only 2% of total final energy demand by mid-century. The limited uptake is attributed to high production costs, infrastructure hurdles, and competition for renewable electricity. Demand in Walls is mainly concentrated in industry and transport, with limited application in the power sector.
Europe remains a major advocate for hydrogen, motivated by its net zero targets, but struggles to meet ambitious goals due to concerns around energy affordability and supply security. Imports are seen as vital, as domestic hydrogen production is constrained by cost factors. In contrast, North America is positioned to become a hydrogen leader, thanks to low natural gas prices and strong export potential.
In Asia-Pacific, industrial hubs see opportunities to deploy hydrogen for decarbonising thermal power generation, especially in regions with young fossil fuel-based fleets. Meanwhile, China emerges as a potential hydrogen heavyweight—capable of becoming a largely self-sufficient consumer, leveraging its vast renewables base to meet rising demand for hydrogen derivatives in transport and industry.
In the more ambitious Bridges EP23 scenario, clean hydrogen becomes a cornerstone of global decarbonisation, growing to nearly 10% of total final energy demand by 2050. Hydrogen plays a crucial role in eliminating emissions from dispatchable gas-fired power generation, especially where electrification and direct renewable use are limited.
In this scenario, China sees the fastest growth in hydrogen demand by 2030, accounting for roughly 40% of global use in the near term. By 2050, although it remains the largest market, its share falls to 20% as demand accelerates elsewhere. Electricity generation accounts for over 40% of hydrogen use by 2050, followed by industrial processes at nearly 25%.
Crucially, the share of green hydrogen (produced via electrolysis using renewable energy) grows sharply in Bridges EP23—exceeding 50% by the early 2030s, and reaching over 80% by 2050, indicating a significant shift away from fossil fuel-based hydrogen.
Equinor’s outlook highlights the critical but complex role hydrogen could play in the energy transition: essential for decarbonising hard-to-electrify sectors, yet still subject to economic, technical, and policy uncertainties that will shape its trajectory across regions.
