BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 16. The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) has raised its forecast for Kazakhstan’s GDP growth in 2027 to 5.0% from 4.6% in its summer outlook.
"The revision reflects the expected oil production volumes kept unchanged and the implementation of major investment and infrastructure projects, as well as more expansionary fiscal policies. Consumer demand, however, will remain relatively subdued amid moderately tight monetary conditions, slower retail lending, and weak growth in real household incomes," the EFSD said.
The fund said its 2026 growth forecast remained unchanged at 5.0%, reflecting the recovery of oil production at the Tengiz field to full capacity in the second quarter, steady growth in non-commodity sectors, and high investment activity in the quasi-public sector.
According to the EFSD, fiscal policy is expected to provide additional support to economic activity in the second half of 2026, including through a planned targeted transfer of 1.5 trillion tenge via the Infrastructure Development Fund.
Persistently high commodity prices amid a tense external environment are also expected to support export revenues and activity in the mining sector.
The fund expects Kazakhstan’s economic growth to approach its potential rate of around 4.1%-4.2% in 2028-2029 as the effects of expanded oil production fade and domestic demand normalizes. This is expected to gradually close the positive output gap and ease inflationary pressure.
The EFSD noted that Kazakhstan’s economic growth accelerated to 4.1% in the first half of 2026, compared with 3.0% in the first quarter.
The improvement followed the fading impact of an emergency production halt at the Tengiz field and supply disruptions along the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) route earlier in the year. Oil production returned to full capacity in the second quarter, while manufacturing, construction and trade continued to grow steadily.
High investment activity, including in the quasi-public sector, continued to support economic growth, while consumer demand remained subdued amid slower retail lending and weak growth in real household incomes.
According to Trend’s calculations, the EFSD’s 2027 GDP growth forecast is 0.4 percentage points higher than its summer projection.
For comparison, the World Bank’s October Europe and Central Asia Economic Update projects Kazakhstan’s economic growth at 4.6% in 2026, unchanged from its April forecast.
The bank raised its 2027 growth forecast to 4.2% from 3.9% in April, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, according to Trend’s calculations. For 2028, the World Bank projects Kazakhstan’s GDP growth at 3.9%.
The EFSD’s projections are higher than the World Bank’s forecasts for both 2026 and 2027, by 0.4 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively.
