BAKU, Azerbaijan, Mar. 8
By Maryana Akhmedova – Trend:
Georgia’s economy has not been heavily affected yet amid the crisis between Russia and Ukraine, Trend reports via TBC Capital’s weekly review.
According to the report, the decrease in exports to Russia is not expected. However, the decline in imports, tourism inflow, and remittances is very likely.
TBC Capital also said mentioned a possible increase in cargo turnover through Georgia, as the northern route has become more risky.
Thus, according to the positive scenario, Georgia’s GDP growth in 2022 is more likely to reach 3.5-4 percent. In the negative scenario TBC Capital envisages Georgia’s GDP growth between -1.5 to 0.5 percent.
Meanwhile, as the number of non-residents mainly from Russia and Belarus increase in Georgia, the additional foreign exchange inflow of approximately $100 million is expected on an annual basis, the TBC Capital said.
Also, in terms of depreciation of the national currency (Georgian lari), a less negative impact is expected. In particular, TBC Capital envisages national currency’s exchange rate at 3.35 Georgian lari/$1.
Thus, given the current macroeconomic scenario, further depreciation of Georgian lari is unlikely. Moreover, the intervention of the National Bank of Georgia with raising interest rates in Georgian lari it not excluded, TBC Capital concluded.
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