BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 14. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its forecast for natural gas prices, projecting a gradual increase through 2026 despite prices remaining lower than previously expected, Trend reports.
According to the agency’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the Henry Hub spot price averaged nearly $3.20 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) from April through July, $0.80 below the forecast issued in April. Higher-than-anticipated natural gas production and reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, due in part to extended maintenance at several terminals, have contributed to an increase in storage levels. The EIA now expects natural gas inventories at the end of the injection season on October 31 to be about 2% above the five-year average, compared with a 3% deficit projected in April.
“Although prices are generally lower than our earlier forecasts, we still expect them to rise from current levels as market balances tighten,” the EIA said.
The agency forecasts Henry Hub prices to average around $3.60/MMBtu in the second half of 2025 and $4.30/MMBtu in 2026—21% and 6% lower than April projections, respectively. Prices are expected to climb steadily, reaching more than $5.40/MMBtu by December 2026.
The EIA cited declining dry natural gas production—after a one-billion cubic feet per day increase from the first to the second quarter of 2025—and a projected growth of around 2 Bcf/d in LNG exports as key factors that will tighten supply-demand balances and put upward pressure on prices in the coming year.
