BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 15. China’s economic growth is expected to remain resilient in 2026, supported by exports, advanced manufacturing and targeted policy measures, OPEC said.
According to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report for August 2026, China’s economy grew by 4.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, following 5% growth in the first quarter. Average growth reached 4.7% in the first half of the year, keeping the government’s full-year target of around 5% within reach.
OPEC expects China’s economy to expand by 4.6% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027, with advanced manufacturing, exports and policy support remaining key contributors to growth.
The report noted that industrial output continued to expand, rising 5.3% year-on-year in June, compared with 4.5% in May and 4.1% in April.
China’s external trade also maintained strong momentum. Exports reached a record $412.4 billion in June, up 27% year-on-year, while imports increased 36% to $286.8 billion.
OPEC highlighted strong exports of high-tech goods, semiconductors, automobiles and AI-related products. The organization also expects demand for AI-linked electronics, clean-energy products and other technology-intensive goods to support China’s export performance.
According to the report, policymakers are also focusing on high-tech manufacturing and AI supply chains, alongside infrastructure development in areas including power, computing, communications and logistics.
OPEC said China’s export diversification, together with an improving domestic consumption outlook, will shape the country’s economic growth in 2027.
The expansion of China’s industrial and manufacturing output is also closely linked to the country’s external trade, as a significant share of manufactured goods is destined for international markets. China uses multiple transport routes to deliver these exports to overseas markets, with the Middle Corridor gaining increasing attention as an alternative east-west route connecting China with Europe. As Beijing continues to expand trade and manufacturing ties with European and other international markets, the reliable operation and further development of such routes could become increasingly important for maintaining efficient export flows and supporting China’s longer-term economic growth.
Against this backdrop, the International Transport Forum (ITF) told Trend in an exclusive interview that the Middle Corridor would retain its strategic importance as a diversified Asia-Europe route, while Turkmenistan could benefit from Caspian transit routes toward Azerbaijan.
"The Middle Corridor would nevertheless retain strategic value as a diversified Asia–Europe route that avoids both Russia and Iran. It will continue to benefit from strong political and investment support for Eurasian connectivity," ITF said.
