BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 13. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects economic growth in the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia to slow to more sustainable levels, in line with their potential growth rates, Roberto Cardarelli, Assistant Director in the Middle East and Central Asia Department of the International Monetary Fund, said.
He made the remarks during the presentation of the regional economic outlook report "Caucasus and Central Asia Steering Through Uncertainty".
He said the region's economies had grown at rates exceeding their potential in recent years, but such momentum could not be sustained over the long term.
"We expect growth to remain resilient and fairly strong, but gradually moderate to its potential level," Cardarelli said.
He also said the IMF had revised upward its 2026 inflation forecast for oil-importing countries in the region compared with the estimates presented in April.
At the same time, the Fund expects inflation across the region to gradually decline in the coming years.
Cardarelli explained that this would be driven by slower economic growth and easing demand-side pressures, as well as an expected decline in energy prices.
According to him, the anticipated easing of the impact of the energy shock on terms of trade is linked to the IMF's baseline assumption of lower global oil prices.
However, Cardarelli stressed that this scenario was based on certain assumptions and might not materialize.
