BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 13. The developments in the South Caucasus in recent years have increasingly made one truth clear: the region’s future should no longer be shaped by conflict and confrontation, but rather by cooperation, transportation links, and economic integration. Azerbaijan’s political will, particularly that of President Ilham Aliyev, and the peace agenda he has put forward play a decisive role in shaping this new phase.
Following the historic victory in the 44-day Patriotic War, Azerbaijan set itself a new goal: to consolidate the results of the war in accordance with international law, achieve lasting peace in the region, and transform the South Caucasus from an arena of confrontation into a platform for cooperation. Baku has sought to achieve this goal not only through political statements, but also through concrete proposals, diplomatic initiatives, and economic projects. Today, we are already seeing individual elements of this agenda being implemented.
President Ilham Aliyev’s meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, which took place on November 12 in Dublin, also marked another important milestone in this very process. At the meeting, which took place within the framework of the 9th Summit of the European Political Community, the parties discussed advancing the peace agenda, building on the outcomes of the Peace Summit held on August 8, 2025, in Washington, and the signed Joint Declaration.
The significance of the meeting lay not only in the fact that the two leaders came together. The substance of the discussions showed that relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia are gradually shifting from the stage of political agreements to that of practical cooperation aimed at transforming everyday life and economic ties. Transportation and transit routes, trade and economic relations, border delimitation, confidence-building measures, the future integration of power grids, and the management of transboundary water resources—these are the issues that today constitute the true substance of peace.
Baku is the architect of the peace agenda; cooperation is the key condition for the next phase
The peace proposals put forward by Azerbaijan after the war are based on the fundamental principles of international law: mutual recognition of sovereignty and territorial integrity, the inviolability of state borders, the renunciation of territorial claims against one another, and the non-use of force. This was precisely the essence of the five principles announced by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2022.
As a result of negotiations conducted based on these principles, the text of a peace agreement was initialed in Washington on August 8, 2025. This marked a historic step toward resolving the decades-long conflict in the political and legal spheres. At the same time, it should be noted that the initialed text is not yet an officially signed and entered into force agreement. For the agreement to be signed and enter into force, it is essential to complete the required legal procedures.
Azerbaijan’s position is clear: lasting peace is possible only on the basis of mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, the renunciation of territorial claims, and normal good-neighborly relations. Accepting this reality and integrating Armenia into regional integration processes are crucial for its own economic and political future. A peace agreement is the primary legal and political foundation for this path.
In essence, through the new reality created by the Patriotic War, Azerbaijan has opened up opportunities for the development of all countries in the region, including Armenia. Armenia, which for many years operated under a logic of blockade and confrontation, is now beginning to see the benefits created by trade, transit, energy, and transportation links with its neighbors. This demonstrates that the peace agenda put forward by Azerbaijan is beneficial not only to Baku but to the entire region.
TRIPP - An Economic Pillar of Peace and a Slow-Moving Process
One of the notable topics at the Dublin meeting was the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) project. President Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan discussed the planning and design of the project’s rail and road components, as well as the prospects for transit connections along the route.
The significance of TRIPP extends far beyond that of a single transportation route. In addition to establishing a connection between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, this project has the potential to reshape the transportation landscape of the South Caucasus, accelerate freight transport between the East and West, and expand opportunities for regional trade. The development of rail and road infrastructure could create conditions for reducing freight transit times and costs, diversifying routes, and expanding economic ties.
The project also opens up significant economic opportunities for Armenia. The country could gain the opportunity to connect to the regional transit system, attract new investments, modernize its infrastructure, and expand trade ties with its neighbors. For Azerbaijan, ensuring unimpeded transport links with Nakhchivan and strengthening its position along the East–West corridor are of strategic importance.
Notably, the TRIPP project is already moving forward on the legal and organizational fronts. The Armenian Parliament has enacted the necessary legislative changes to implement the project.
The announcement that the project will enter the construction phase in early 2027 indicates that TRIPP is moving beyond the realm of political debate and approaching the stage of practical implementation.
The main reason TRIPP is becoming a difficult process to reverse is that it is driven not only by political agreements but also by economic interests. Along with Azerbaijan and Armenia, Türkiye, Central Asian countries, as well as European and Asian markets could benefit from this route. Transporting cargo via shorter, safer, and more efficient routes will enhance the region’s competitiveness.
105,000 metric tons of cargo and transboundary rivers: peace is already yielding tangible results
One of the most significant outcomes of the Dublin meeting was the positive assessment of cargo transit to Armenia through Azerbaijani territory. According to official data, a total of 105,000 metric tons of cargo has been transported through Azerbaijani territory to Armenia from last November to the present. This figure demonstrates that the peace agenda is already yielding concrete results in the economic sphere. By creating conditions for transit through its territory as part of this process, Azerbaijan is helping to give peace economic substance.
Another important development is the establishment of working groups on the management of transboundary rivers. This area, which at first glance appears to be a technical and environmental issue, is in fact a crucial component of regional security. The protection of river water resources, water allocation, pollution prevention, and environmental risk management are issues that cannot be resolved within the borders of a single country.
The establishment of working groups on transboundary water cooperation between Azerbaijan and Armenia demonstrates the parties’ willingness to discuss even more complex issues through dialogue.
Turkish-Armenian relations are also part of the regional agenda being shaped jointly with Baku.
Another important aspect of regional developments is the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations. At a meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, held on November 11 as part of COP31, the two leaders discussed the normalization of relations and the establishment of transportation and communication links between the two countries.
Türkiye’s position in this process also highlights the crucial importance of Azerbaijani-Armenian relations. Turkish Minister of Transport and Infrastructure Abdulkadir Uraloğlu stated that Ankara has completed preparations to reopen the land border and restore rail service with Armenia; however, the opening of the border is contingent upon the conclusion of a comprehensive agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This statement by the Turkish side once again demonstrates the importance of coordination between Ankara and Baku on regional issues.
Thus, the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations is also inseparable from the Azerbaijani-Armenian peace process. This shows that complementary political and economic processes are taking shape in the region.
The opening of the border between Türkiye and Armenia, the restoration of rail service, and the expansion of trade ties will increase the economic potential of the South Caucasus. However, for this process to be sustainable, it is important to take Azerbaijan’s security interests into account and maintain coordination with Baku.
Azerbaijan’s regional strategy: not external dependence, but cooperation through its own efforts.
Today, against the backdrop of ongoing political and military conflicts, instability, and economic risks in the Middle East, a historic opportunity has emerged to transform the South Caucasus and Central Asia into a region of stability and interconnectedness. With its rich natural resources, energy potential, transportation capabilities, and advantageous geographic location, Central Asia is attracting the attention of the world’s leading powers. China, Russia, the US, and the EU are seeking to expand their economic and political ties with this region.
In this geopolitical landscape, Azerbaijan is one of the key connecting countries linking Central Asia with Europe. The routes passing through the Caspian Sea, the Middle Corridor, port and railway infrastructure, and energy and logistics capabilities make Azerbaijan’s role indispensable. Without Azerbaijan’s participation, it is difficult to envision a large-scale and sustainable system of interconnectivity that would enable Central Asia to access European markets.
This is the very essence of the regional approach being shaped under the leadership of President Ilham Aliyev: the three states of the South Caucasus – Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia – must rely first and foremost on their own will and regional dialogue when resolving their problems, ensuring security, and establishing economic cooperation. The interests of external powers must not become the sole factor determining relations among the countries of the region. On the contrary, cooperation among the three countries based on mutual benefit, respect for each other’s sovereignty, and shared economic interests must form the foundation of stability in the South Caucasus.
This does not mean rejecting cooperation with external partners. US participation in the TRIPP project, the European Union’s interest in regional infrastructure, and Türkiye’s support for the normalization process demonstrate that the new economic architecture of the South Caucasus also creates broad opportunities for international partnership. However, the countries of the region themselves must be the primary architects of regional solutions.
The events of recent days at COP31 and the Dublin Summit have once again demonstrated this reality. Azerbaijan is one of the key players in promoting a peace agenda with Armenia, normalizing Turkish-Armenian relations, and developing transportation and economic ties between the East and the West.
At the heart of all this lies the political course set forth by President Ilham Aliyev. Following its military victory, Azerbaijan put forward a peace initiative, proposed opening regional transport routes, and placed opportunities for economic cooperation on the agenda; today, we are seeing the practical results of these initiatives.
The future of the South Caucasus can no longer be assessed solely through the lens of past conflicts. The region now has the prospect of building new transportation routes, trade opportunities, energy cooperation, and a common security system. In this process, Azerbaijan is not merely a participant but the leading regional force shaping its direction. Having initiated the peace process, Baku has now moved on to the stage of transforming that peace into economic prosperity, regional integration, and long-term stability.
