BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 8. One year after the Washington breakthrough between Azerbaijan and Armenia, it has become clear that peace in the South Caucasus is not only a diplomatic achievement but also a driver of economic transformation across Central Asia.
On August 8, 2025, following a trilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a joint declaration on establishing peace between Baku and Yerevan, while the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia initialed the text of the “Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and Interstate Relations.” The document marked a major milestone after decades of conflict and opened the way for new transport and trade links. For Central Asian countries, the key outcome has been a reduction in risks along their western routes. The South Caucasus is gradually emerging as a more stable and predictable space for connectivity between Asia and Europe.
Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev described the normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia as a historic process. Addressing the UN General Assembly, he said: “We also welcome the normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia under the mediation of the President of the United States. This proves that even protracted conflicts can be resolved through diplomacy and common sense.”
For Kazakhstan, this process has direct economic significance, as the country is one of the key participants in the Middle Corridor, or Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, linking China and Central Asia with the Caucasus and Europe.
Kazakh Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov said at a meeting of the Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation that freight volumes along the Middle Corridor had increased more than fivefold from 2021 levels, rising from less than 1 million tons to around 4–5 million tons in 2025. A further increase of around 10% is expected in 2026, bringing volumes to 5.2 million tons. “Developing the TITR is a shared priority. Systematic efforts are under way to modernize infrastructure, expand port and terminal capacity, establish unified tariffs and introduce digital solutions,” he said.
One factor behind this growth is the improved stability of the South Caucasus. For exporters in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and other countries across the region, this means more reliable supply planning, lower transit risks and new opportunities to access markets in Türkiye and Europe.
A key element of this emerging architecture is the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), which envisages establishing a transport route through Armenian territory.
Speaking at the opening ceremony of the 13th Global Baku Forum, President Ilham Aliyev said: “After peace with Armenia, on a new extension of the Middle Corridor, which will go through the territory of Armenia. And Armenia, for the first time in its independent history, will also be a transit country, which today it is not. And this will allow us to connect two parts of Azerbaijan — the mainland and our exclave, Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic — with a sustainable transportation link, energy link, fiber optic link, electric cables, and potentially pipelines. So for us, it's kind of a win-win situation for all of us, I mean, for those who really want to use this new opportunity, because we will connect two parts of Azerbaijan with transportation infrastructure, and we will create a new extension, as I said, of the new corridors, which will benefit many countries.”
For Central Asia, TRIPP means an additional western route. Today, the main corridor runs through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia and onward to Türkiye. A new route through Armenia could provide an additional gateway to European markets, strengthening the resilience of the wider transport network.
Practical changes are already under way. Following the removal of restrictions, new opportunities have emerged for the transit of goods between Central Asia and the South Caucasus. In November 2025, Kazakh grain was transported to Armenia through Azerbaijan for the first time in decades. The move was one of the early examples of political normalization translating into tangible trade flows.
At the same time, Azerbaijan’s cooperation with Central Asian countries is expanding. Speaking at an informal meeting of the leaders of Azerbaijan and Central Asian states in Cholpon-Ata, President Ilham Aliyev said relations with the region were among Baku’s foreign policy priorities. “Since the beginning of 2023, over the past three and a half years, I have visited the brotherly countries of Central Asia 16 times, while my colleagues have visited Azerbaijan 26 times during the same period. These figures speak louder than any words about the closeness of our relations and demonstrate that Central Asia and Azerbaijan have effectively become a single geopolitical and geoeconomic space,” the head of state said.
The trend is also reflected in trade figures. Azerbaijan’s trade turnover with Central Asian countries continues to grow in 2026, supported by stronger links along the Middle Corridor. Trade with Uzbekistan increased by nearly 43% in the first quarter of 2026, reaching $80.1 million, while trade turnover with Kazakhstan reached $150 million in the first months of the year.
Uzbekistan views regional stability as the foundation for a broader space for cooperation. In congratulating the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia on receiving the Zayed Award for Human Fraternity, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev described the agreement reached between the two countries as a historic step toward ensuring stability throughout the region. “In today’s volatile world, there is a great need for responsible leaders, unwavering political determination, and the solution of problems through dialogue. In the current complex international situation, decisions made in such a way can create a foundation of stability and strong trust between states and peoples. However, the priceless blessing of peace does not come on its own. Peace requires the courage to listen to others, find ways to compromise even in the most difficult circumstances, and take responsibility for the decisions made,” he said.
Kyrgyzstan has also expressed support for the process. “The Kyrgyz Republic is firmly convinced that the full restoration of relations between your countries primarily serves the interests of both peoples and creates a strong foundation for lasting peace. In this sense, we fully support the recent efforts of Baku and Yerevan to sign a peace agreement as soon as possible. We are ready to provide full support for this process, which strengthens mutual trust between the two countries and contributes to the creation of a sustainable peace architecture,” Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov said.
Turkmenistan and Tajikistan have likewise supported efforts to strengthen regional stability. Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, Chairman of the Halk Maslahaty of Turkmenistan, said that the principles of mutual understanding and trust, the commitment to strengthening interstate dialogue and resolving conflicts in the interests of peace and stability represent highly important, effective and forward-looking approaches. “The adoption, in the International Year of Peace and Trust, of important decisions to achieve peace and accord between Azerbaijan and Armenia is of truly historic significance,” he said.
Tajik President Emomali Rahmon has also expressed support for the normalization process. During a meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Dushanbe, the two sides discussed the opportunities that have emerged following the establishment of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as prospects for implementing the TRIPP project. Dushanbe welcomed the initialing of the peace agreement and expressed support for further normalization between Baku and Yerevan. Tajikistan sees the reduction of tensions in the South Caucasus as creating new opportunities to strengthen regional cooperation, including transport and trade links.
At the transport level, the shift is already reflected in corridor dynamics. In the first quarter of 2026, 125 container trains travelled along the Middle Corridor, up 34.4% year on year. Average delivery times have fallen to 11–13 days. Energy route diversification is providing an additional boost. Kazakhstan’s oil shipments through the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline continue to increase, with approximately 704,000 tons transported in the first half of 2026 against annual plans of 1.5–2.2 million tons.
One year after the Washington agreement, it has become increasingly clear that peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia has moved beyond a purely bilateral agenda. For Central Asia, it has become a factor supporting the development of new routes, expanding trade and enhancing the region’s investment appeal. Further progress on TRIPP, the expansion of the Middle Corridor and deeper cooperation between Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries could create a new economic link stretching from China to Europe. In this sense, peace in the South Caucasus is becoming not only a political outcome, but also a strategic infrastructure asset for the wider Eurasian space.
