BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 19. Oil production in the Middle East will reach 30 million barrels per day by 2030.
According to the report “Energy Transition Outlook 2026” by the international expert organization DNV, in 2026, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz led to one of the most significant disruptions in oil supplies in recent decades. However, its long-term consequences will be primarily linked to changes in demand dynamics.
The report notes that, at the time of its preparation, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely disrupted. Global oil production is expected to decline by more than 5% in 2026, or approximately 4.5 million barrels per day.
At the same time, demand for crude oil, according to DNV’s estimates, declined to a lesser extent – by approximately 2% or about 2 million barrels per day. Consumption was affected by high prices, fuel shortages, and China’s economic slowdown. The resulting supply shortfall was covered by strategic and commercial reserves.
“By 2027, the market will return to balance, and production and demand will recover,” the report notes.
However, DNV emphasizes that the long-term impact of the crisis will be linked to a shift in the trajectory of demand. Among the factors already influencing the market are the end of the post-pandemic recovery in tourism, a slowdown in industrial activity, and the accelerating adoption of electric vehicles.
According to DNV’s forecast, the transportation sector, which remains the largest segment of global oil demand, will peak just before 2030, at approximately 117 exajoules (EJ), or 70% of total demand.
"By 2040, oil consumption in the transportation sector will decline to 104 EJ, and by 2060, to 50 EJ. At the same time, its share of total demand will be 60%, despite a significant reduction in overall consumption.
Demand for oil for non-energy purposes, including petrochemical production, declined even more sharply than in the transportation sector in 2026. This will have a long-term impact on its recovery.
Once the conflict ends, oil production will exceed consumption for some time. This is due to the need to replenish strategic reserves, which countries have been drawing on since March 2026. At that time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) coordinated the largest release of oil from reserves in its history.
Oil production in the Middle East will reach 30 million barrels per day by 2030. The region’s share of global production will recover to approximately 36% by that time and reach 40% by 2060,” the report states.
As noted in the study, the shift in regional shares of global oil production is primarily due to a decline in overall global demand, rather than physical damage to oil production infrastructure.
“North America will be the main region to benefit from the shift in the global market structure. According to the forecast, its oil production in 2060 will amount to 9 million barrels per day, compared to the 7.5 million barrels per day projected a year earlier,” DNV reports.
