ASTANA, Kazakhstan, June 15. Kazakhstan’s current account balance is expected to remain in deficit through 2027, with projections worsening due to falling export revenues and persistently strong demand for imported goods, according to the latest economic outlook by the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK), Trend reports.
| Year | Current Account (% of GDP) | Current Account (USD bn) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -6.5% | -11.1 |
| 2021 | -1.4% | -2.7 |
| 2022 | 2.8% | 6.4 |
| 2023 | -3.6% | -9.4 |
| 2024 | -1.3% | -3.7 |
| 2025 (f) | -3.8% (-2.8%)* | -10.9 (-8.4)* |
| 2026 (f) | -4.0% (-3.2%)* | -11.8 (-9.9)* |
| 2027 (f) | -3.8% (-2.8%)* | -11.3 (-8.9)* |
*In parentheses: previous forecast estimates from the February NBK outlook
The widening gap is attributed primarily to a decline in goods exports, particularly oil, as the NBK’s baseline scenario assumes Brent crude prices will remain at $60 per barrel—significantly lower than in 2024. While increased output at the Tengiz oil field will help offset some of the price pressure, total exports are projected to shrink from 28.3% of GDP ($80.1 billion) in 2024 to 25.8% ($76.9 billion) by 2027.
Non-oil exports, including metals and agricultural products, are expected to remain relatively stable thanks to steady external demand.
Meanwhile, imports will continue to grow, fueled by structural dependence on foreign goods, expanding consumer demand, and the import intensity of infrastructure and industrial development programs. Goods imports are forecast to reach 21.5% of GDP ($63.9 billion) in 2027.
The income balance will remain in deep deficit, projected at -7.5% to -7.7% of GDP, or approximately $22 billion per year. This reflects ongoing profit repatriation by foreign investors amid increasing oil production and strong metal prices.
The services balance will also contribute to the overall current account deficit. Although growing tourism outflows will increase import of services, the NBK notes that transit cargo flows and rising inflows of non-resident visitors, especially from China, India, and CIS countries, will help partially offset this effect. The net deficit in services is projected at 0.5%–0.7% of GDP.
With these trends in play, the NBK anticipates the current account deficit to stay above 3.5% of GDP through 2027, reflecting a structural imbalance between export earnings and import demand.
