BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 17. Global oil demand rose by 990,000 barrels per day (kb/d) year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest outlook, marking the fastest quarterly growth since early 2023, Trend reports.
However, the IEA notes that this pace is unlikely to be sustained throughout the rest of the year.
The first-quarter surge is partly attributed to a weaker baseline set by the exceptionally mild winter of 2024, which had reduced demand for heating fuels such as gasoil, kerosene, and propane. As a result, year-on-year comparisons are elevated.
For the rest of 2025, the IEA forecasts a more moderate increase in global oil demand, averaging 650 kb/d over the remaining quarters. This would bring the full-year average growth to 740 kb/d—slightly higher than last month’s estimate by 20 kb/d. The revision reflects upward adjustments to global GDP growth and lower oil prices, though these were tempered by lower-than-expected consumption data in non-OECD countries, particularly India.
Looking ahead to 2026, the IEA projects a similar trend, with oil demand expected to grow by 760 kb/d, indicating a continued but measured expansion in global consumption.
